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Evidence · Study critique · continued

Reverse causation in a cohort study of weight and outcome — a second dataset posts 91–120

This is a continuation of a long topic, addressed by post number rather than by page. Start at post 1.

TB
t.brandtTL215 Sep 2025#91
KB
k.bettencourtTL2Member15 Sep 2025#92

Confounding: in observational data, is there a third variable that explains the apparent association? In randomised data, randomisation should balance unknown confounders, though known confounders can be adjusted for.

0 likes 10mo
AC
a.coelhoTL2 Moderator15 Sep 2025#93

For anyone arriving from a search: the marked solution above is the direct answer, and the replies underneath it add the caveats that make it safe to use.

2 likes 10mo
CW
cohort_watchTL2Member15 Sep 2025#94
a.wikstrom, post #62: For anyone arriving from a search: the marked solution above is the direct answer, and the replies underneath it add the caveats that make it safe to use. Go to post

Coming back to post #92, because the follow-up matters more than the original answer.

Bias towards the null and bias away from the null: different criticisms have different directions. Differential dropout might bias away from null; conservative statistical analysis might bias toward null.

9 likes in reply to #62 10mo
FL
f.laurentTL2 Moderator15 Sep 2025#95

Publication bias: a single published positive trial is weaker evidence than multiple published trials with consistent results. Asking whether there are unpublished negative trials is a fair critical question.

15 likes 10mo
SE
septum_entryTL2Member15 Sep 2025#96

Bias towards the null and bias away from the null: different criticisms have different directions. Differential dropout might bias away from null; conservative statistical analysis might bias toward null.

29 likes 10mo
CF
c.falkTL2 Moderator15 Sep 2025#97

This follows post #94 rather than contradicting it.

Choosing the worst interpretation: "The confidence interval includes a harmful effect" is true if the CI goes from -1 to +5. But assuming the worst-case scenario is not how you use the evidence. The point estimate and the precision both matter.

0 likes 10mo
AW
a.westergaardTL3Regular15 Sep 2025#98
Lundqvist, post #75: Choosing the worst interpretation: "The confidence interval includes a harmful effect" is true if the CI goes from -1 to +5. But assuming the worst-case scenario is not how you use the evidence. The point estimate and the precision both matter. Go to post

I read post #96 twice before replying, because I had assumed the opposite.

Two things before anyone answers the substance.

First, the context in the first post is clear and specific. Second, the question is framed so that an answer can actually address it. Both are the norm here and both matter more than they sound.

5 likes in reply to #75 10mo
DY
d.yilmazTL2 Moderator15 Sep 2025#99

Multiple comparisons: if a paper reports many outcomes, the chance of a spurious association by random chance is real. Pre-specification of primary outcomes matters and secondary analyses are weaker evidence.

0 likes 10mo
ZL
z.laurentTL2 Moderator15 Sep 2025#100

On post #96 — agreed on the reasoning, with one qualification.

Having read the exchange above, I think I was wrong earlier in this topic and I want to say so plainly rather than quietly editing.

The correction was fair and I had been repeating something I had not checked carefully enough.

0 likes 10mo
ZS
z.szaboTL2 Moderator15 Sep 2025#101

Generalisability: do the inclusion/exclusion criteria narrow the population so much that results do not apply to real people asking about it? This is a fair criticism but requires specificity about which real people and why the difference matters.

0 likes 10mo
KR
k.redgraveTL2Member15 Sep 2025 · edited#102

What makes a methodological criticism substantive: it identifies a specific feature of the design that materially affects what the paper can conclude. "Small sample size" alone is weak. "Small sample size for a rare outcome, so the confidence interval is wide" is stronger.

5 likes 10mo
SI
s.ivaturiTL2 Moderator15 Sep 2025#103

Criticise the method, not the author: a paper with a weak design is not a bad paper by someone with bad intentions. It is a paper that answers a limited question. Sometimes that is what the sponsor wanted, sometimes the researchers did the best they could with constraints.

13 likes 10mo
CP
citation_peakTL3Regular16 Sep 2025#104
t.waldenstrm, post #71: Criticise the method, not the author: a paper with a weak design is not a bad paper by someone with bad intentions. It is a paper that answers a limited question. Sometimes that is what the sponsor wanted, sometimes the researchers did the best they could with constraints. Go to post

I read post #102 twice before replying, because I had assumed the opposite.

Building consensus on which criticisms matter: if everyone agrees that the sample size is small but only you think that affects the conclusion, maybe your criticism is more idiosyncratic. That does not make it wrong but it is worth noticing.

28 likes in reply to #71 10mo
MN
ma.nascimentoTL2 Moderator16 Sep 2025#105

For anyone arriving from a search: the marked solution above is the direct answer, and the replies underneath it add the caveats that make it safe to use.

0 likes 10mo
LP
l.parkinsonTL2Member16 Sep 2025#106

Publication bias: a single published positive trial is weaker evidence than multiple published trials with consistent results. Asking whether there are unpublished negative trials is a fair critical question.

2 likes 10mo
SD
s.demirTL2 Moderator16 Sep 2025#107

Picking up post #104: that is the part I would want checked first.

When you change your mind: if a reply convinces you that your criticism was not well-founded, say so plainly. The critique might still be real but smaller than you originally thought. That is not a failure — it is how discussion works.

9 likes 10mo
OP
o.pasqualeTL1Member16 Sep 2025#108
h.lindqvist, post #85: Coming back to post #83, because the follow-up matters more than the original answer. Choosing the worst interpretation: "The confidence interval includes a harmful effect" is true if the CI goes from -1 to +5. But assuming the worst-case scenario is not how you use the evidence. The point estimate and the precision both matter. Go to post

Coming back to post #106, because the follow-up matters more than the original answer.

Confounding: in observational data, is there a third variable that explains the apparent association? In randomised data, randomisation should balance unknown confounders, though known confounders can be adjusted for.

20 likes in reply to #85 10mo
ES
e.steinerTL2 Moderator16 Sep 2025#109
l.aaltonen, post #13: Generalisability: do the inclusion/exclusion criteria narrow the population so much that results do not apply to real people asking about it? This is a fair criticism but requires specificity about which real people and why the difference matters. Go to post

Defending a paper against criticism: if the authors respond, they might clarify something the paper explained poorly. Their response might also miss your point. Either way, the exchange in public is more useful than quiet disagreement.

4 likes in reply to #13 10mo
QZ
q.zhao_qaTL3Quality assurance16 Sep 2025#110

Worth separating two things that post #106 runs together.

Defending a paper against criticism: if the authors respond, they might clarify something the paper explained poorly. Their response might also miss your point. Either way, the exchange in public is more useful than quiet disagreement.

13 likes 10mo
IO
i.oseiTL2 Moderator16 Sep 2025#111
an.adeyemi, post #69: Confounding: in observational data, is there a third variable that explains the apparent association? In randomised data, randomisation should balance unknown confounders, though known confounders can be adjusted for. Go to post

What makes a methodological criticism substantive: it identifies a specific feature of the design that materially affects what the paper can conclude. "Small sample size" alone is weak. "Small sample size for a rare outcome, so the confidence interval is wide" is stronger.

0 likes in reply to #69 10mo
O
OTeixeiraTL3Regular16 Sep 2025#112
steady_state, post #45: Generalisability: do the inclusion/exclusion criteria narrow the population so much that results do not apply to real people asking about it? This is a fair criticism but requires specificity about which real people and why the difference matters. Go to post

Generalisability: do the inclusion/exclusion criteria narrow the population so much that results do not apply to real people asking about it? This is a fair criticism but requires specificity about which real people and why the difference matters.

26 likes in reply to #45 10mo
SO
s.oyelaranTL2 Moderator16 Sep 2025#113

On post #109 — agreed on the reasoning, with one qualification.

Two things before anyone answers the substance.

First, the context in the first post is clear and specific. Second, the question is framed so that an answer can actually address it. Both are the norm here and both matter more than they sound.

12 likes 10mo
M
MJayawardenaTL3Regular16 Sep 2025 · edited#114

post #113 answers the question as asked. The question underneath it is different.

Bias towards the null and bias away from the null: different criticisms have different directions. Differential dropout might bias away from null; conservative statistical analysis might bias toward null.

4 likes 10mo
SB
s.beaulieuTL2 Moderator16 Sep 2025#115
forest_plot, post #59: Building consensus on which criticisms matter: if everyone agrees that the sample size is small but only you think that affects the conclusion, maybe your criticism is more idiosyncratic. That does not make it wrong but it is worth noticing. Go to post

Multiple comparisons: if a paper reports many outcomes, the chance of a spurious association by random chance is real. Pre-specification of primary outcomes matters and secondary analyses are weaker evidence.

13 likes in reply to #59 10mo
GH
g.haalandTL3Regular16 Sep 2025#116

For anyone arriving from a search: the marked solution above is the direct answer, and the replies underneath it add the caveats that make it safe to use.

4 likes 10mo
TV
to.vargaTL2 Moderator16 Sep 2025#117

Choosing the worst interpretation: "The confidence interval includes a harmful effect" is true if the CI goes from -1 to +5. But assuming the worst-case scenario is not how you use the evidence. The point estimate and the precision both matter.

8 likes 10mo
CD
cohort_driftTL3Regular16 Sep 2025#118

post #117 is right about the mechanism and I think understates the practical bit.

When you change your mind: if a reply convinces you that your criticism was not well-founded, say so plainly. The critique might still be real but smaller than you originally thought. That is not a failure — it is how discussion works.

2 likes 10mo
AK
ar.kravchenkoTL2 Moderator16 Sep 2025#119
s.grahame, post #49: Coming back to post #47, because the follow-up matters more than the original answer. Bias towards the null and bias away from the null: different criticisms have different directions. Differential dropout might bias away from null; conservative statistical analysis might bias toward null. Go to post

Coming back to post #117, because the follow-up matters more than the original answer.

Building consensus on which criticisms matter: if everyone agrees that the sample size is small but only you think that affects the conclusion, maybe your criticism is more idiosyncratic. That does not make it wrong but it is worth noticing.

1 like in reply to #49 10mo
G
GSwinburneTL1Member16 Sep 2025#120

Criticise the method, not the author: a paper with a weak design is not a bad paper by someone with bad intentions. It is a paper that answers a limited question. Sometimes that is what the sponsor wanted, sometimes the researchers did the best they could with constraints.

0 likes 10mo