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Research Methods · N-of-1 designs

Second pass at: Designing a personal experiment that could change your mind

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Solved by g.bakken in post #4
Picking up post #2: that is the part I would want checked first. Washout periods: after stopping a medication, how long does it take for the effect to wash out? For compounds with a week-long half-life, roughly a month is needed to reach baseline. Using that washout period in a before-after design strengthens the…

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JS
j.silvaTL2 Moderator15 May 2025#1

Second pass at: Designing a personal experiment that could change your mind Writing it up because I had to work it out twice and would rather nobody else did.

Session topic: SURPASS-4 (Lancet, 2021). Please read it before posting; the discussion is much better when everyone has.

The question I would like us to start with is what the trial set out to estimate, rather than what it found. Once that is on the table we can talk about whether the design could have answered it, and only then about the numbers.

Specific things I would like covered: the population and how far it generalises, how discontinuation was handled, whether the comparator was a fair one, and what the absolute rather than relative effect looks like.

I will summarise at the end and the summary will feed the relevant digest page.

10 likes 14mo
JI
j.ivaturiTL2 Moderator15 May 2025 · edited#2

Stopping rules: decide in advance when you will stop measuring (after a defined duration, after a defined number of measurements, or after a defined condition is met). Not deciding in advance means stopping when the result satisfies you, which is bias.

0 likes 14mo
ST
sterile_tableTL3Regular16 May 2025#3

Coming back to the opening post, because the follow-up matters more than the original answer.

Practical note that does not fit anywhere else. Whatever you conclude from this topic, write down what you did and when. The single most useful thing in your own records is not any individual result; it is that they are dated and consecutive.

29 likes 14mo
GB
g.bakkenTL2 Moderator Solution16 May 2025#4

Picking up post #2: that is the part I would want checked first.

Washout periods: after stopping a medication, how long does it take for the effect to wash out? For compounds with a week-long half-life, roughly a month is needed to reach baseline. Using that washout period in a before-after design strengthens the inference.

14 likes 14mo
M
microgramsTL2Regular16 May 2025#5

Sample size in n-of-1: you are the sample. Repeated measurements (weekly weighings, daily mood scores) increase the power to detect a real effect even though n=1.

9 likes 14mo
MR
m.radichTL2 Moderator16 May 2025#6

Objective versus subjective measures: subjective measures (how you feel) are vulnerable to bias. Objective measures (weight, strength on a specific exercise) are less vulnerable but not immune.

2 likes 14mo
RH
revision_historyTL3Wiki editor16 May 2025#7
j.silva, post #1: Second pass at: Designing a personal experiment that could change your mind Writing it up because I had to work it out twice and would rather nobody else did. Session topic: SURPASS-4 ( Lancet , 2021). Please read it before posting; the discussion is much better when everyone has. The question I would like us to start with is what the… Go to post

I read post #5 twice before replying, because I had assumed the opposite.

Confounding in personal experiments: other things change when you start a medication (season, exercise, diet, stress). Documenting those confounders helps you understand their contribution to the result.

0 likes in reply to #1 14mo
AA
a.adeyemiTL2 Moderator17 May 2025#8

I disagree with the reply above, and I think the disagreement is substantive rather than terminological.

The distinction being drawn does not survive when you look at the published data for this specific question. I would be glad to be shown wrong on this, because the version I am arguing against is more convenient.

20 likes 14mo
SC
sourced_claimsTL317 May 2025#9
SG
s.grimaldiTL2 Moderator17 May 2025#10
m.radich, post #6: Objective versus subjective measures: subjective measures (how you feel) are vulnerable to bias. Objective measures (weight, strength on a specific exercise) are less vulnerable but not immune. Go to post

post #9 answers the question as asked. The question underneath it is different.

Thank you for the correction. I have edited my earlier post with a note rather than silently, so the thread still makes sense to read. The error was mine and it was the kind that comes from remembering a figure instead of looking it up.

5 likes in reply to #6 14mo
DF
d.ferreiraTL2 Moderator17 May 2025#11
micrograms, post #5: Sample size in n-of-1: you are the sample. Repeated measurements (weekly weighings, daily mood scores) increase the power to detect a real effect even though n=1. Go to post

For anyone arriving from a search: the marked solution above is the direct answer, and the replies underneath it add the caveats that make it safe to use.

2 likes in reply to #5 14mo
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batchlogTL3Regular17 May 2025 · edited#12

Worth separating two things that post #8 runs together.

When to run an n-of-1: this design works when you want to know whether a treatment works for you, not whether it works in general. For that purpose, it is efficient.

8 likes 14mo
SK
s.kuuselaTL2 Moderator17 May 2025#13

Statistical analysis of n-of-1 data: comparing before versus after with a t-test or similar is one approach. Plotting the data visually is another. Both are valid.

27 likes 14mo
TY
two_year_lineTL3Regular18 May 2025#14

Generalisability: a robust n-of-1 result applies to you. It does not tell you much about whether the effect generalises to others similar to you, much less to people different from you.

0 likes 14mo
NK
n.krastevTL2 Moderator18 May 2025#15

Washout periods: after stopping a medication, how long does it take for the effect to wash out? For compounds with a week-long half-life, roughly a month is needed to reach baseline. Using that washout period in a before-after design strengthens the inference.

4 likes 14mo
BD
baseline_driftTL2Analytical chemist18 May 2025#16

Blinding: blinding yourself (not knowing which condition you are in) removes expectation bias. This is hard to do with these compounds (the appetite suppression is hard to miss) but partial blinding is possible (measuring something objective without knowing whether you took it today).

13 likes 14mo
IA
id.almeidaTL2 Moderator18 May 2025#17

Picking up post #14: that is the part I would want checked first.

Stopping rules: decide in advance when you will stop measuring (after a defined duration, after a defined number of measurements, or after a defined condition is met). Not deciding in advance means stopping when the result satisfies you, which is bias.

0 likes 14mo
BV
bias_varianceTL4Biostatistician18 May 2025#18
id.almeida, post #17: Picking up post #14: that is the part I would want checked first. Stopping rules: decide in advance when you will stop measuring (after a defined duration, after a defined number of measurements, or after a defined condition is met). Not deciding in advance means stopping when the result satisfies you, which is bias. Go to post

Two things before anyone answers the substance.

First, the context in the first post is clear and specific. Second, the question is framed so that an answer can actually address it. Both are the norm here and both matter more than they sound.

0 likes in reply to #17 14mo
HB
h.brandtTL2 Moderator18 May 2025#19

Designing a personal experiment that could actually change your mind: that is the standard for an n-of-1 design. An experiment designed so that any result confirms what you already believed has not changed anything.

0 likes 14mo
IS
isotonic_sheetTL3Regular19 May 2025#20

Objective versus subjective measures: subjective measures (how you feel) are vulnerable to bias. Objective measures (weight, strength on a specific exercise) are less vulnerable but not immune.

2 likes 14mo
MB
m.balogunTL2 Moderator19 May 2025#21

On post #17 — agreed on the reasoning, with one qualification.

Two things before anyone answers the substance.

First, the context in the first post is clear and specific. Second, the question is framed so that an answer can actually address it. Both are the norm here and both matter more than they sound.

1 like 14mo
UC
unit_conversionTL3Regular19 May 2025#22
d.ferreira, post #11: For anyone arriving from a search: the marked solution above is the direct answer, and the replies underneath it add the caveats that make it safe to use. Go to post

post #21 answers the question as asked. The question underneath it is different.

Statistical analysis of n-of-1 data: comparing before versus after with a t-test or similar is one approach. Plotting the data visually is another. Both are valid.

0 likes in reply to #11 14mo
FH
f.haddadTL2 Moderator19 May 2025#23

Sample size in n-of-1: you are the sample. Repeated measurements (weekly weighings, daily mood scores) increase the power to detect a real effect even though n=1.

22 likes 14mo
PN
p.novotnyTL2Regular19 May 2025#24

Confounding in personal experiments: other things change when you start a medication (season, exercise, diet, stress). Documenting those confounders helps you understand their contribution to the result.

30 likes 14mo
ES
e.steinerTL2 Moderator19 May 2025#25

Worth separating two things that post #21 runs together.

Generalisability: a robust n-of-1 result applies to you. It does not tell you much about whether the effect generalises to others similar to you, much less to people different from you.

15 likes 14mo
KO
k.otieno_statsTL3Statistician19 May 2025#26
n.krastev, post #15: Washout periods: after stopping a medication, how long does it take for the effect to wash out? For compounds with a week-long half-life, roughly a month is needed to reach baseline. Using that washout period in a before-after design strengthens the inference. Go to post

For anyone arriving from a search: the marked solution above is the direct answer, and the replies underneath it add the caveats that make it safe to use.

5 likes in reply to #15 14mo
RV
r.vukovicTL2 Moderator20 May 2025 · edited#27

When to run an n-of-1: this design works when you want to know whether a treatment works for you, not whether it works in general. For that purpose, it is efficient.

1 like 14mo
TP
tracked_parcelTL2Regular20 May 2025#28

Generalisability: a robust n-of-1 result applies to you. It does not tell you much about whether the effect generalises to others similar to you, much less to people different from you.

0 likes 14mo
ZO
z.okonkwoTL2 Moderator20 May 2025#29
k.otieno_stats, post #26: For anyone arriving from a search: the marked solution above is the direct answer, and the replies underneath it add the caveats that make it safe to use. Go to post

Sample size in n-of-1: you are the sample. Repeated measurements (weekly weighings, daily mood scores) increase the power to detect a real effect even though n=1.

21 likes in reply to #26 14mo
PI
p.iyer_pharmdTL3Pharmacist20 May 2025#30

Objective versus subjective measures: subjective measures (how you feel) are vulnerable to bias. Objective measures (weight, strength on a specific exercise) are less vulnerable but not immune.

9 likes 14mo